Look at the differences between 1993 and 2018, the most recent year data are available. Homicide rates 1993 US all races 8.14 per 100,000 White 4.79 and Black homicide rate was 30.73 per 100,00 2018 US all races 5.76 per 100,000 White 3.31 and Black homicide rate was 20.97 per 100,00 See how the numbers have fallen but the patterns are pretty stable? (You can run all these yourself easily at https://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate.html (Links to an external site.) ) Below, I report the table the CDC calculated for us. These are the odds of a person becoming a homicide victim, assuming nothing else killed them and they were able to live until 85. This is important because the people at highest risk of dying from homicide are also at high risk of dying from other causes, removing them from the pool of potential death from homicide, so the CDC statistically imputed everybody living til 85. These data are constrained by the reality they only report basic demographic data, nothing on where the person lived, economic or educational status, the situation surrounding the homicide, etc. The CDC ran these estimates for us, and report these as the odds of becoming a homicide victim in 1993: For everyone in America: 1 in 154 For all whites 1 in 253 For all blacks 1 in 44 For all other races 1 in 222 For all males 1 in 99 For all females 1 in 355 For all white females 1 in 503 For all black females 1 in 125 For all other race females 1 in 407 For all white males 1 in 170 For all black males 1 in 26 For all other race males 1 in 152 This is read as in 1993, holding all other causes constant, 1 out of 154 Americans would die from homicide. 1 out of 253 whites, 1 out of 44 blacks, etc. Clearly, there are huge variations in the risks by demographic characteristics. (A few years ago a Chicago Councilwoman said the high number of black men being killed were all by police, this is absolutely not supported by the data. She meant not even official legal interventions, but secret death-squad type killings. That is again not supported by the data). The huge majority of murders are intra-racial (within race), and when they are not, they are significantly more likely to be black on white than white on black anyway. Should various social policies take the above data into account? Do any policies address the data presented in the table above, or do they all actively try to avoid it? As in, if you mentioned these type of patterns, would you be the bad guy for mentioning facts, or would people listen to you and try to address the issues above? When you take these data into account, do policies that you once disagreed with (for example, stop and frisk type activities by the police, as brought up in the previous week’s discussion area-but there are many relevant CJ policies, not just policing) make more sense, do they save lives? Did you know that often homicide rates are lower (and this is not a policy recommendation at all, just an observation) for certain demographics to be in prison than out in the world? Would the current social or criminal justice policies be different if the numbers presented in this table were inverted, that is if 1 out of 26 white women were killed and 1 out of 503 black men were? How?

APA

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