How likely is civil war with more than 1,000 battle deaths between the Turkish government and Kurdish organizations in the next five years?
Currently, the chances of a civil war with more than 1,000 battle deaths between the Turkish government and Kurdish organizations are relatively low. However, there are several factors that could increase the likelihood of such a conflict in the future. First, the recent peace talks between the two sides have broken down, increasing tensions and raising the possibility of renewed violence. Second, the Turkish government has been cracking down on Kurdish groups and individuals in recent years, which has made many Kurds feel marginalized and resentful. Finally, Turkey's neighbors - particularly Syria and Iraq - have experienced significant turmoil in recent years, which has spillover effects on Turkey itself. While none of these factors guarantees that a civil war will break out in the next five years, they do increase the likelihood of such a conflict.
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