It is February 2025 and, in a surprise, joint announcement at a meeting in Beijing, President Xi of China announces the launch of a new security alliance for Asia and the Middle East called the MENASIA Security and Peace Forum. It has been founded to challenge and constrain the expansion of US and pro-US attempts to dominate Asia, the Middle East and the wider Indian Ocean region. It will provide military technology, joint military training and joint command and control between Beijing and member states. Both Russia and Iran immediately announce that they are joining. In response, the new Trump administration has given regional allies in both Asia and the Middle East only two weeks to publicly state their refusal to join this new alliance and pledge their support for US regional leadership. A high-level US delegation will visit Doha in coming days to make it very clear that the US government expects full and public support on this matter. You have been tasked with briefing top decision-makers on the implications of this scenario.
1. In making your recommendations, to what extent should you consider the shrinking power differential in international affairs? In other words, is China inevitably going to become the dominant power in the wider region at the expense of the US (remember the different definitions of power) and, if so, should this be factored into your thinking? In making this assessment remember to consider whether China has the political will and/or material the material power to overtake the US or whether it can rely on the support of other actors in the system to challenge the US, such as Russia?
2. If you do believe China either alone or at the head of a anti-US alliance will become the dominant global player, what are the main instruments of power that could enable them to overtake the US? (informational; economic; military; diplomatic; domestic political; or legitimacy and credibility)?
3. Despite this offer, do you prefer the status quo of close cooperation with the US and good relations with many actors rather than special relations with Beijing? Is it possible for Qatar to maintain good relations with China if it rejects the offer and how can it maintain positive relations with other key actors in the region and outside if it accepts the Chinese offer, especially other Asian countries that buy significant amounts of Qatari LNG – notably Japan and South Korea?
4. More long-term, what kind of relationship do you expect Qatar to have with China if it becomes the dominant global actor? Will it be a relationship of followership (based on reciprocity; transforming interests; and legitimacy) or will it be based on hegemony (coercion or the threat of coercion)?
The evolving power differential between the United States and China is central to understanding this scenario. The concept of power in international relations extends beyond military capability to encompass economic, soft, and relational power (Nye, 2004). While the United States has historically dominated the global order, China's ascent challenges this hegemony.
China's rise is underpinned by:
China's political will, demonstrated by initiatives like the MSPF, signals its ambition to reshape regional security dynamics. However, overtaking the U.S. requires not only material capabilities but also political coherence and legitimacy. While China’s partnership with Russia and Iran strengthens its position, challenges persist, including:
Given the narrowing power differential, decision-makers should adopt a pragmatic approach that acknowledges China's rising influence while maintaining strategic flexibility. This entails:
China's capacity to challenge U.S. hegemony lies in its strategic use of multiple instruments of power:
China's economic diplomacy, through trade agreements and infrastructure investments, fosters dependency among participating nations. The BRI exemplifies this strategy, with investments exceeding $1 trillion (World Bank, 2019).
China’s defense spending, the second highest globally, supports advancements in naval and missile technology. Joint military initiatives under the MSPF could enhance interoperability with allies like Russia and Iran (Erickson, 2020).
China leverages forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to promote multilateralism as an alternative to U.S.-led alliances.
China's state-controlled media and cultural diplomacy (e.g., Confucius Institutes) shape narratives favoring its global leadership (Shambaugh, 2015).
The Communist Party’s centralized authority enables swift decision-making, though this comes at the cost of political pluralism.
China’s legitimacy is contested due to its human rights record and territorial disputes. To strengthen its position, Beijing must address these concerns while offering attractive alternatives to U.S. policies.
Qatar's longstanding partnership with the U.S. provides:
However, aligning exclusively with the U.S. risks alienating China, a major global power and LNG consumer. A balanced approach is preferable.
If Qatar rejects the MSPF offer, it can maintain positive relations with China by:
Qatar’s role as a diplomatic mediator positions it to maintain good relations with key actors:
If China becomes the dominant global actor, Qatar’s relationship with Beijing will depend on the nature of Chinese leadership:
To ensure a balanced relationship:
The emergence of the MSPF reflects broader shifts in global power dynamics, with China asserting itself as a counterweight to U.S. influence. Qatar must navigate these changes strategically, balancing its relationships with both powers while safeguarding its sovereignty and economic interests. Recognizing the interplay of economic, military, and diplomatic factors is crucial to crafting policies that ensure long-term stability and prosperity.
The joint announcement by President Xi Jinping of China, along with immediate support from Russia and Iran, to establish the MENASIA Security and Peace Forum (MSPF) in February 2025 marks a significant development in global geopolitics. Designed to counteract U.S. influence in Asia, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean region, the MSPF provides member states with advanced military technology, joint training, and integrated command systems. The U.S. response—demanding regional allies pledge support to its leadership—underscores the high stakes of this rivalry. For Qatar, the implications of this development extend beyond military alliances; it touches on broader economic, diplomatic, and political considerations. This paper critically evaluates the scenario, providing recommendations for Qatar's decision-makers while analyzing the potential shifts in global power dynamics.
The traditional dominance of the United States in global affairs faces a formidable challenge from China’s rise as a multi-dimensional power. In the 21st century, power is no longer defined solely by military strength but also includes economic influence, soft power, and relational capacity (Nye, 2004). China’s rapid economic growth, technological advancements, and strategic investments have redefined the power equation, especially in regions like Asia and the Middle East, where Beijing’s influence is growing rapidly.
China’s increasing prominence is evident in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which spans over 140 countries and invests in critical infrastructure (Rolland, 2017). Simultaneously, the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), especially its naval capabilities, has enhanced China’s ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific and beyond (Erickson, 2020). Furthermore, China’s emphasis on soft power through cultural exchanges and multilateral diplomacy, as seen in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), strengthens its appeal as an alternative to U.S. dominance.
The launch of the MSPF demonstrates China’s willingness to challenge the established order. Yet, dominance requires more than ambition. Political coherence, economic sustainability, and legitimacy on the global stage are equally critical. Despite its advancements, China faces notable challenges. Domestically, economic vulnerabilities such as high debt levels and a slowing GDP growth rate could undermine its long-term ambitions. Regionally, distrust among neighbors like India and Japan hampers China’s ability to form a cohesive bloc against U.S. influence.
Moreover, while Russia and Iran lend strategic weight to the MSPF, their own limitations—such as Russia’s economic isolation and Iran’s geopolitical volatility—may constrain their contributions to the alliance’s strength. Thus, while China’s dominance in the wider region is plausible, it is neither inevitable nor uncontested.
For Qatar, acknowledging the narrowing power differential between the U.S. and China is critical. Decision-makers should adopt a pragmatic approach that neither dismisses China’s rise nor prematurely assumes its dominance. Instead, Qatar should pursue a strategy that preserves its autonomy and maximizes its strategic options by engaging with both powers while maintaining flexibility.
China’s capacity to challenge U.S. hegemony relies on its strategic deployment of various instruments of power, each tailored to enhance its global and regional standing.
China’s economic diplomacy is a cornerstone of its global strategy. Through the BRI, China has invested over $1 trillion in infrastructure projects, creating dependencies and influence among participating nations (World Bank, 2019). In regions like the Middle East, China’s role as a major importer of oil and LNG, combined with investments in ports and energy infrastructure, bolsters its leverage.
The modernization of China’s military underpins its ability to project power. The MSPF’s promise of joint military training and technology transfer could enhance the operational capabilities of member states. Furthermore, advancements in naval and missile technologies, particularly in anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systems, position China as a formidable military actor in contested regions like the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean (Erickson, 2020).
China’s diplomatic initiatives emphasize multilateralism as an alternative to the U.S.-led alliance system. Forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and now the MSPF offer platforms for regional cooperation on security and economic issues, promoting a vision of shared prosperity under Chinese leadership.
China’s state-controlled media and initiatives like Confucius Institutes extend its soft power influence globally. By shaping narratives that highlight its developmental success and international leadership, China seeks to legitimize its role as a global power (Shambaugh, 2015).
Despite its efforts, China’s legitimacy as a global leader is contested. Issues such as human rights violations in Xinjiang, crackdowns in Hong Kong, and aggressive territorial claims undermine its credibility. Addressing these concerns will be essential for China to sustain its global ascent.
Qatar’s longstanding partnership with the U.S. has provided significant benefits, including security guarantees through the Al Udeid Air Base and robust economic ties. Aligning with the U.S. offers continuity and access to advanced military technology. However, exclusive alignment risks alienating China, an increasingly influential player in the Middle East and a key consumer of Qatari LNG.
Rejecting the MSPF does not preclude Qatar from maintaining positive relations with China. By emphasizing economic cooperation and non-security-related partnerships, Qatar can engage with China without compromising its strategic alignment with the U.S. Initiatives like the BRI offer opportunities for infrastructure investment and trade expansion, enabling Qatar to benefit from China’s economic rise while avoiding entanglement in geopolitical conflicts.
Qatar’s role as a diplomatic mediator positions it uniquely to maintain good relations with diverse actors. To ensure stability, Qatar should:
Should China become the dominant global actor, the nature of Qatar’s relationship with Beijing will depend on the character of Chinese leadership.
To safeguard its interests, Qatar should:
The MENASIA Security and Peace Forum represents a pivotal moment in global geopolitics, signaling China’s ambition to challenge U.S. dominance in Asia and the Middle East. For Qatar, this development necessitates a nuanced approach that balances its partnerships with both powers while safeguarding its sovereignty and economic interests. By recognizing the complexities of the shifting power dynamics and leveraging its unique position as a mediator and energy exporter, Qatar can navigate the challenges and opportunities of an increasingly multipolar world.
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